Observations and Insights
Geo strategy from a software-informed and data-driven perspective
Tentative, collated, findings from numerous, corroborated, sources
Smaller But Transparent Will Be Better
Geographically smaller but nevertheless highly interconnected, transparent, well-educated, and technified communities are the future
Geographically expansive (contiguous) organizations will no longer be as relevant:
(a) Big countries and populations are harder to manage.
(b) Sheer landmass (and Earthly resources) will matter a lot less as technology expands.
(c) Human capital (talent, knowledge) matters more than territory.
(d) Winston Churchill: "The empires of the future will be empires of the mind".
(e) Highly integrative, programmatic multi-party authentication (on highly lethal weapon systems or existential threats), cryptography-based voting and consensus-making tools are recommended to ensure compliance, agreement, and as further checks and balances. Such mechanisms can be required on network connectivity to ensure integration and appropriate information-sharing.
(f) Appropriate information-sharing, as well as privacy, can be calculated and encoded.
(g) The metaphor is something like: interconnected dots (as opposed to just shaded regions) along with multiple other, overlaid, interconnected webs. Such a metaphor will no longer apply merely to computer or internet-based networks as every device, process, and system grows more ephemeral, digital, and abstract. This will necessitate further oversight and management but even that too will become increasingly ephemeral and non-geographically or even spatially confined. Each layer (or wrapper) represents enhanced value to the networks, added security, and redundancy.
Cooperation is the key to competition:
(a) This is not doublethink.
(b) All business comes down to agreements and contracts - coordination of activities, shipping, and payment is required.
(c) Both cooperation and competition exist in scenarios of friendly, healthy, competition.
(d) Competition is not always zero-sum - neither is cooperation (meaning here: neither is strictly binary but exists in gradients).
(e) Various technologies, and primarily those resulting from innovations in software, have demonstrated that both integration and competition can exist and be profitable at the same time.
(f) More advanced kinds of economic arrangements (like gift economies or economies of abundance) are already in place, in limited use, and in limited scale.
Innovation and Freedom
Innovation requires freedom and criticism:
(a) You cannot fix what you are not allowed to criticize.
(b) Over time, that produces stagnation and given the growth and expansion of competitors effectively means decline.
(c) Group think reduces effective decision-making - excessive, and in particular non-rational, criticism inhibits decision-making.
(a) The only constant is change.
(b) At root all innovation is in some sense more (or better) intelligence, skill, talent, smarts, etc. versus more (or worse) stupidity, lack of skill, lack of talent, lack of smarts, etc.
Information and Organization
The organization of a society mirrors:
(a) Its communication flow and networks.
(b) The tools at use in its communication infrastructure.
(c) Communication follows trade, commercial, and energy movement.
Science and Freedom
Data driven and scientific analysis requires:
Peace is Desirable and Rational
War is adverse to long-term growth and survival:
(a) Destruction in conflict results in lost humans, beings of moral worth (which includes humans), knowledge, infrastructure, and commercial value particularly as the conflict prolongs and as the conflict intensifies.
Aggression and Revanchism
Revanchism, humiliation, and fear drive most aggressive nation-state or international conflicts today:
(a) Set goals for countries to achieve - let them participate in goal-setting.
(b) Reward countries for achieving set goals.
(c) Acknowledge and resolve any historical and emotionally troublesome past - the cost of apologizing is less than the cost of conflict and war.
Desperation and Aggression
(a) Desperate powers are more likely to commit international crimes in the same way that desperate people will.
(a) Legal, commercial, military, and financial integration produces more international stability and more stability the larger the alliance.
(b) WW1 occurred due to the existence of several fragmented, limited, alliances ultimately resulting in political and military bipolarity.
(c) WW2 occurred due to political and military polarities which collapsed into bipolarity.
Win-Win Solutions Are Best
(a) Purported win-win solutions typically produce better results for you (and them) than just self-centered solutions. They don't produce better results in cases where significant information asymmetry exists (and hence, deception and deceit inhibit a true case of win-win from occurring or being implemented).
Selfishness and Selflessness
(a) Selfishness and selflessness are poorly articulated - it is in one's self-interest to work and cooperate with others which involves, at times, being more or less altruistic.
(b) These are not binary opposites.
(c) Self-interest means acting in one's own interest but in circumstances, such as cases involving your loved ones or family, your interest and theirs are one - their well-being and success reflect on you and are extensions of your success. Your well-being and success are extensions of their success.
Ethics and Law
(a) The framework established by the U.N. and the Geneva code are the result of centuries, millennia, of rational discourse, discovery, and research.
(b) The framework established by the U.N. and the Geneva code are rational for every person to abide by. If they do not, they leave themselves susceptible to genocide, state murder, etc.
Science is the Best Epistemic Approach
(a) Whether or not science wholly and completely describes all of reality, it is nevertheless the best approach to generating knowledge.
(b) Mathematics, logic, the social sciences, engineering, and medicine are continuous with and part of that activity.
(a) Are only as strong, effective, and good (both in terms of quality and in terms of adherence to the ethical and legal framework described above) as the people, their interpersonal relationship patterns, communications, information, talent, knowledge, technology, and skill are (among many other things - some yet to be identified).
Empathy and Compassion
(a) Empathy, understanding what it's like to be in another's position, is critical to adequate information flow, effective communication, and interpersonal (and hence, organizational) strength.
(b) Compassion, or trying to solve (other) people's problems, is critical to effectively identifying markets for business expansion/growth and ensuring stability within an organization (among coworkers or employees for example).